The 4 Stories of 2008. Which One Will Stick?

A "story" speaks to the subconscious mind, which is more powerful than the conscious mind for so many voters. That's why some stories stick, when they resonate with people's emotions, even in the face of conflicting facts which might contradict the story. Whichever story sticks, wins.

A few months ago, I believe it was HuffPoster Drew Weston, who said that an election is about competing stories. In the general election of 2008, the stories that matter are:

3. What the Democrats say about the world and their candidates.
4. What the Republicans say about the Democratic world view and their candidates.And conversely….
5. What the Republicans say about the world and their candidates.
6. What the Democrats say about the Republican world view and their candidates.

After the conventions, the stories for 2008 seem to be set.

1. What the Democrats say about the world and their candidates

As we all have heard, the Democratic story says that the last few years, while the Republican party has been in control of the government, things have gotten a lot worse for Americans, at home and abroad.

Obama's story of "Change you can believe in" is hopeful and has resonated with many people. Since polls have shown that over 80 percent of Americans want change, this should be a clear winner. It stuck with enough democrats to win the primary, but it was a close race in the end when the Clinton team invoked fear with their “3 a.m.” ad and kitchen sink tactics. (This was so ironic since Bill Clinton had himself won on “The Man From Hope” theme in the past.)

2. What the Republicans say about the Democratic world view and their candidates

The way the human mind works, fear often trumps hope, and the republicans are experts at winning on fear. They say that Obama is so new (inexperienced, not ready to lead) and "different" (here you can insert black, elitist, radical Muslim terrorist, alien), that he is dangerous. This is sticking. After 2 books, 18 months of campaigning, etc., many people still say they don't know who he is. On the subconscious level, "Change" is O.K. as an idea, but when you get right down to it, change represents the unknown, which is a potential threat, which is scary.

The Democrat’s Vice President Adjustment

That is why it was a good move for Obama to pick Biden. He moderates the fear of the unknown, because he has long experience in the federal government and is respected for international as well as domestic issues. He dilutes the “Change” message some, but not much. The democratic ticket is still a big change from the current administration.

3. What the Republicans say about the world and their candidates

The Republican negative portrayal of Obama fits perfectly with the dominant republican story. The Republicans have repeatedly won on fear with their story that the world is a dangerous place, which threatens our values and way of life. In the last election, the Republicans even posted helpful Homeland Security “Current Threat Levels,” so we would know how frightened to be.

This resonates with everyone on some level. Globalization, immigration, disruptive new technologies, terrorists, people with different values; to our nervous systems, which are wired to react to any change in the environment as a potential threat, the modern world is indeed a frightening place. Adding to our fear level, the nightly news floods our brains with a constant barrage of images and stories of calamity and mayhem from all corners of the globe, inflaming our nervous systems with constant “fight or flight” reactions.

Only the Republican candidates can protect us. Why? They have the right characters for the story. The republicans have said in the past that their John Wayne cowboy (Reagan/Bush) would protect us. Since that image has been sullied by the problems of the current administration, they have turned to someone with a slightly different image: a Maverick fighter pilot (McCain, right from the movie “Top Gun”) will keep you safe. And adding sharp-shootin’ Sarah, they have a powerful story to run on: two warriors to protect our way of life. McCain to protect in a military way and Palin to protect our cultural values.

The brilliance of these candidates is that the republicans are so confident in their manipulation skills that they have even now hijacked Obama’s “Change” message. Incredibly, they believe that people will trust them when they say that with their candidates, we can have the safety we need in this dangerous world and also get just enough change to avoid any pain and suffering we might have felt from the current “Washington insiders.” So, they will represent change, but not toooo much. (Of course, they fail to mention that Republicans have controlled Washington for 8 years and are, in fact, the insiders. Why confuse people with facts when they are listening to your story?)

4. What the Democrats say about the Republican world view and their candidates

The Democrat’s story about the Republican candidates is also based on fear and has a chance of sticking. Their new add says it best, “Same,” showing images of McCain and Bush. It even has McCain himself saying he voted with Bush over 90% of the time. This reminds people of the trauma of the last 8 years and the fear that it will continue under McCain. The democrats probably need to run this add continuously every day until the election to counter the Republican faux story of change.

Which story will “stick” and drive the most people to the polls to vote? Will the heroes of the Republicans, Top Gun McCain and his side-kick Annie Oakley Palin, convince enough people that only they can protect our values and way of life, that they will bring positive change to a government their party has controlled for many years and that Obama represents too much change without enough experience: that he is too dangerous. Or will the Democratic agents of real change, the exciting representative of the new millennium Obama and his wise, experienced sidekick Biden, convince enough people that hope is still possible and that a vote for McCain would mean more of the same trauma we have endured for the last 8 years. Perhaps this time more people will be afraid of the “Same” than of “Change.”

See also:

Dave Johnson’s Huffpost "What's Obama's Story?" Good post about the need for Obama to refine and communicate his story.

Betty Fussell’s Huffpost “Pistol-packin’ Sarah Shoots Up The Screen.” Good post about the Republican story about Palin

http://www.fearwars.blogspot.com/ Blogpost with a discussion of the neuro-biology at work in the election

RobertEye is a long time student of the workings of the mind, with a degree in Comparative Religion and advanced studies in psychology, hypnosis, motivation and marketing. His current day job is V.P. of Sales and Marketing for a software company.